The Blue Sky Trap: Why Community Benchmarking Fails

I once looked a client in the eye over a coffee and promised that a 5% bump in retention would increase their annual revenue by 25%. I had no data on their specific economics, no industry context, and absolutely no business making that claim.

I was just repeating a stat I'd researched online because I wanted to look "serious."

Today’s essay is about how proving community ROI starts with god benchmarking.

^{COMMUNITY BUSINESSES IRL:}

Mentalists, Dumpster Fires, and the "Nearly Done" Trap

🔥 It was a dumpster fire: 2020 wasn't a "pivot" for me; it was a survival strategy. I went on Jomiro’s podcast to confess that I didn't build a community for the metrics—I built it because the world was burning and I was lonely. → Listen to my scrappy origin story

🚧 The "99% Done" Illusion: "Just one more tweak" is the lie we tell ourselves before blowing the budget. Pearl breaks down why "nearly done" is actually a decision trap that kills momentum. → Read before you delay launch again

👻 Stop trying to be everywhere: You don't need to be an influencer to get clients; you just need to be "visible enough" to get paid. Taylor Aller is coming to show us the lazy (smart) person's guide to organic growth. → Steal her minimalist roadmap

🔮 I know what you're thinking: We all wish we could read our clients' minds to avoid scope creep. Simone Snedorf decided to skip the middleman and interview an actual mentalist instead. Watch her try to out-psyche the psychic. → See who cracks first

^{THE BUSINESS OF COMMUNITY}

The "Blue Sky" Trap (And How to Benchmark Without Lying)

I recently fell into a classic trap. I wanted to look serious. I wanted to promise big impact. So I pulled a stat out of thin air:

"If we improve retention by 5%, we’ll boost annual revenue by 25%."

It sounded great. It was based on "industry standards." And it was completely reckless.

I didn’t know their specific unit economics. I didn’t know their industry benchmarks. I was promising a harvest before I’d even checked the soil.

…

You’d expect the client to be thrilled, right? Instead, they paused and said:

"Let’s scale that back. We’d rather you under-promise and over-deliver."

Oof.

That was the reality check I needed. I realised I was benchmarking against a fantasy ("Blue Sky") instead of reality.

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The Fix: The Competitor Scorecard

I stopped guessing and started researching. I looked at what every major competitor in their specific industry was doing.

And I found a massive, glaring gap.

While the local competitors weren't investing in community at all, the global giants were winning because of it.

This wasn’t about copying them. It was about orienting myself. You can’t set a benchmark if you don’t know where the goalposts are. The research didn't give me a strategy, but it gave me a playing field.

Real Benchmarks vs. Vanity Indicators

I used to benchmark against Lagging Indicators (Revenue, Engagement scores).

Now, I benchmark against Infrastructure (Leading Indicators).

Old Promise: "We will increase revenue by 25%." (I can't control this).
New Promise: "We will build the data infrastructure to track the real journey: Did they RSVP? Did they actually attend? Did they come back a second time? Did they eventually buy?" (I can control this).

Revenue and engagement are great indicators of health, but they are terrible benchmarks for work.

If you want to look serious, stop promising Blue Sky revenue. Promise that you’ll build the ship before you promise to sail across the ocean.

The "Time Machine" Problem

Here is the uncomfortable truth I had to swallow: I couldn't retroactively decide to be data-driven.

I used to panic in December, trying to scrape together a "Year in Review" from a database that didn't exist. I wanted the graph to go up and to the right, but I had never set up the axis.

I couldn't measure 25% growth because I never measured the baseline.

Infrastructure is the tax we pay today for the proof we get tomorrow. By not setting up the tracking (the "boring" admin) in advance, I guaranteed that I had zero leverage when it was time to ask for more budget.

Now I’ve learned to build the bucket before it starts raining.

Benchmarking isn't about lowering ambition. It's about orienting yourself in reality so you can actually win. When I promise infrastructure instead of outcomes, I build trust.

And trust is the only metric that keeps me employed long enough to see that 25% revenue bump happen for real.